Five things to watch in Tuesday's elections in Alaska, Florida, a
· travel
Five Things to Watch in Tuesday’s Elections in Alaska, Florida, and California
This week’s primaries in Alaska, Florida, and California are being closely watched as barometers of voter sentiment ahead of November’s midterm elections. The contests offer a glimpse into the evolving coalitions within both parties and the challenges they face as they navigate shifting demographics and voter preferences.
In Alaska, the Senate primary pits incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan against Mary Peltola, a moderate Democrat who has gained traction among independents and centrists thanks to the state’s ranked-choice voting system. While Peltola’s prospects are notable, so too are Sullivan’s challenges from within his own party – including a Republican challenger with a similar name on the ballot.
In Florida, the Democratic Socialists of America have identified a key battleground in the 25th Congressional District, where progressive candidate Oliver Larkin faces off against moderate Democrat Jared Moskowitz. The DSA has made gains in other states this year, but its prospects in Florida remain uncertain.
Redistricting efforts by Republicans in Florida are also worth watching, as they may yield up to four seats for the party – including one currently held by Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz. To avoid certain defeat, Schultz has opted to run in another district, drawing several Black candidates into the fray.
In California, a special election is underway to fill a vacant House seat, driven by Democratic Party infighting over Israel’s actions in Gaza. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is waging a significant campaign against Aisha Wahab, a Muslim state senator and Afghan American, in favor of Melissa Hernandez, a transit system head.
The influence of special interest groups like AIPAC underscores the complex dynamics at play within both parties as they navigate shifting voter sentiment and internal power struggles. In Florida’s governor race, Donald Trump is backing Republican Representative Byron Donalds in a bid to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis – a move that could set up a tight November contest against ex-Representative David Jolly.
Ultimately, this week’s primaries offer more than just clues about which party will control Congress in November. They provide a snapshot of the evolving coalitions within both parties and the challenges they face as they adapt to changing electoral landscapes. As voters head to the polls, one thing is clear: the midterms will be a test not just of Democratic candidates but also of their ability to forge effective alliances and navigate shifting voter preferences.
Reader Views
- TCThe Compass Desk · editorial
The Alaska Senate primary is where things get really interesting, with Senator Sullivan facing unexpected heat from within his own party. His opponent's similar name will likely cause some voter confusion - a blessing for Peltola if she can capitalize on it. But what's getting lost in the shuffle is how this election may be more about the state's shifting demographics than any particular policy disagreement. Will Alaska voters' willingness to defy partisan norms prove a winning formula, or just a fleeting trend?
- MJMara J. · long-term traveler
The Alaska Senate primary is a wild card - Peltola's ranked-choice strategy might just pay off if Sullivan's own party eats into his vote share. Meanwhile in Florida, the real story is how Republican redistricting could hand them not three but five new seats, shifting the balance of power in the state. And in California, the special election exposes a deeper fissure within the Democratic Party: can they hold together or will foreign policy issues tear them apart?
- IRIván R. · tour guide
One crucial aspect that's often overlooked in these analysis pieces is the impact of ranked-choice voting on party dynamics and coalition-building. In Alaska, for instance, Mary Peltola's success hinges not just on her own appeal but also on the willingness of moderates to rank-choice their way into supporting a Democrat over a Republican. Will we see similar patterns elsewhere? And how will these dynamics play out in other states with ranked-choice systems?