Tokayev’s Consolidation: A Warning Sign for Central Asia?

The appointment of Erlan Karin as vice president in Kazakhstan marks a significant consolidation of power under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. This move comes on the heels of parliamentary elections that saw pro-Tokayev parties sweep to victory, raising concerns about the erosion of democratic checks and balances in the region.

Karin’s appointment is not surprising given his long-standing relationship with Tokayev. He has been a key figure in promoting “New Kazakhstan,” an ideology emphasizing national unity and economic development. However, this arrangement also raises questions about the lack of diversity within the government. With Tokayev eligible for another seven-year term as president under the new constitution, he appears to be positioning himself to become an entrenched leader, with Karin as his trusted deputy.

Karin’s background is worth noting: he has experience in counter-terrorism and internal security, which underscores the government’s emphasis on domestic stability and control. This focus has been a hallmark of Tokayev’s presidency since he took over from Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2019. Nazarbayev’s long reign was marked by authoritarian tendencies, and Tokayev’s break with his predecessor seemed to signal a more democratic direction.

However, the current developments suggest that Tokayev may be reverting to type, using the cover of a new constitution to consolidate power. The swift approval of Karin’s appointment by parliament, dominated as it is by pro-Tokayev parties, only adds to this impression. Furthermore, the appointment of Olzhas Bektenov as prime minister, also approved by parliament, raises questions about the government’s intentions.

Bektenov’s background as a top United Nations official and Soviet diplomat suggests that Tokayev values experience navigating complex international relations. His willingness to reappoint Bektenov may indicate an effort to maintain good ties with key partners while solidifying his grip on power at home. Kazakhstan’s strategic location and economic importance make its politics worth watching closely, particularly given the country’s warm ties with Russia, the West, and China.

The increasing concentration of power in Tokayev’s hands has significant implications for regional stability and the balance of influence between great powers. Central Asia continues to navigate complex relationships with these external actors, and Kazakhstan’s fragile democracies are being tested by rising authoritarianism, corruption, and economic stagnation. The developments in Kazakhstan serve as a warning sign: the region’s democracy is at risk.

The stakes are high not just for Kazakhstan but for the entire region. The balance of power in Central Asia has long been precarious, with competing interests vying for influence. Tokayev’s consolidation of power may tip this delicate balance, potentially setting off a chain reaction that echoes across the continent. As Kazakhstan looks to its next decade of development and growth, one thing is certain: the watchful eyes of the international community will be on Kazakhstan’s presidential palace.